Polly the parrot currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump. Clinton has experienced an upward trend over the past 65 days, in which she gained an additional 0.11 percentage points.
What the component methods predict
There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is right now in the lead by 52.1%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that quantitative index models, with a predicted vote share of 53.3%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's prognosis and predict Clinton to have 59.3% of the vote.