Polly currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is right now in the lead by 51.6%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.3% vote share, quantitative index models are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 60.9% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote prognosis.