Methods widely agree on the election outcome

In the latest update, Polly predicts that Clinton will collect 53.9% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.1% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. In contrast to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 51.6%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 53.1%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 61.0% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote prognosis.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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