Methods widely agree on the election outcome
In the latest update, Polly predicts that Clinton will collect 53.9% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.1% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. In contrast to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 51.6%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 53.1%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 61.0% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote prognosis.