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Clinton in the lead, according to most recent PollyVote forecast


In today's update, PollyVote concludes that Clinton will achieve 52% of the national two-party vote, compared to 48% for Trump. For the last 10 days, Polly's prediction been looking better for Clinton, she has since gained 0.01 percentage points.

Looking at the component methods

There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is currently ahead by 51.9%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 53.2%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's prognosis and predict Clinton to have 56.1% of the vote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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