Methods widely agree on the election outcome

PollyVote currently predicts a national two-party vote share of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is right now leading with 51.6%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 53.1%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's prognosis and predict Clinton to have 58.5% of the vote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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