In the latest update, the combined PollyVote concludes that Clinton will collect 53.6% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.4% for Trump. For the last 51 days, the PollyVote forecast has been looking worse for Clinton, she has since lost 0.31 percentage points.
What the component methods expect
The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on who is ahead: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one predicts that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is currently in the lead by 51.6%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 53.1%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 59.5% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote prognosis.