In the latest update, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will collect 53.3% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.7% for Trump. Clinton has however experienced a downward trend over the past 36 days, in which she lost 0.20 percentage points.
Looking at Polly's components
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is currently leading with 51.6%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.1% vote share, expert surveys are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 59.3% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote prognosis.