In the latest update, Polly predicts that Clinton will achieve 53.3% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.7% for Trump. Clinton has experienced an upward trend over the past 30 days, in which she gained an additional 0.11 percentage points.
Looking at Polly's component methods
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. In contrast to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 51.9%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.2% vote share, expert surveys are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's prognosis and predict Clinton to have 59.7% of the vote.