In the latest forecast, the combined PollyVote concludes that Clinton will gain 53.5% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.6% for Trump. Clinton has experienced an upward trend for the last 43 days, in which she gained an additional 0.17 percentage points.
A look at the component methods
Polly's component methods widely agree on who will be the next POTUS: Five anticipate a win for Clinton and one anticipates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is currently leading with 51.6%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.1% vote share, expert surveys are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's prognosis and predict Clinton to have 58.3% of the vote.