Methods widely agree on the election outcome
Today, the combined PollyVote predicts that Clinton will gain 52.6% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.4% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is currently ahead by 52.1%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 52.0% vote share, expert surveys are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's prognosis and predict Clinton to have 56.6% of the vote.