Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome

In the latest update, the combined PollyVote concludes that Clinton will garner 53.5% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.5% for Trump. The component methods widely agree on who will be elected president: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one predicts that Trump will win. Contrary to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 51.6%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 53.1%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's prognosis and predict Clinton to have 58.7% of the vote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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