In the latest forecast, Polly concludes that Clinton will collect 53.8% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.2% for Trump. For the last 50 days, Polly's prediction been looking worse for Clinton, she has since lost 0.11 percentage points.
What the components expect
The component methods widely agree on who will be America's next president: Five anticipate a win for Clinton and one anticipates that Trump will win. Contrary to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 51.6%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 53.1%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 60.8% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote prognosis.