In the latest forecast, PollyVote concludes that Clinton will obtain 53.3% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.7% for Trump. Over the past 32 days, Polly's forecast been looking better for Clinton, she has since gained 0.01 percentage points.
Looking at the components
There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. In contrast to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 51.8%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.1% vote share, expert surveys are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 59.2% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote prognosis.