As of today, Polly the parrot concludes that Clinton will end up with 53.7% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.3% for Trump. Clinton has however experienced a downward trend over the past 51 days, in which she lost 0.22 percentage points.
Looking at Polly's component methods
There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is right now leading with 51.6%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.1% vote share, expert surveys are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 60.1% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote prognosis.