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Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome


Polly the parrot currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump. The component methods widely agree on who will be the next POTUS: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one predicts that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is right now ahead by 52.1%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.3% vote share, quantitative index models are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's prognosis and predict Clinton to have 57.4% of the vote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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