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Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome


In the latest update, PollyVote concludes that Clinton will collect 53.5% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.5% for Trump. The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on who is ahead: Five expect a victory for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win. Contrary to Polly's combined forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 51.6%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 53.1%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's prognosis and predict Clinton to have 59.0% of the vote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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