Polly today predicts a national two-party vote share of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump. Over the past 35 days, the PollyVote forecast has been looking worse for Clinton, she has since lost 0.26 percentage points.
What the component methods expect
There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. In contrast to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 51.6%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.1% vote share, expert surveys are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 59.1% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote prognosis.