Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome

Polly the parrot today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump. Polly's component methods widely agree on who will be the next POTUS: Five expect a win for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is right now ahead by 51.9%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 53.2%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 56.0% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote prognosis.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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