The combined PollyVote today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. Clinton has experienced an upward trend for the last 10 days, in which she gained an additional 0.11 percentage points.
What Polly's component methods predict
Polly's component methods widely agree on who will win the election: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one predicts that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is right now leading with 51.9%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that combined polls, with a predicted vote share of 51.4%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 55.9% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote prognosis.