The combined PollyVote today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump. Clinton has however experienced a downward trend over the past 21 days, in which she lost 0.80 percentage points.
Looking at the component methods
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is currently ahead by 51.9%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 51.5% vote share, aggregated polls are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 56.7% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote prognosis.