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Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome


Polly currently predicts a national two-party vote share of 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump. The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on the election outcome: Five expect a victory for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win. Contrary to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 52.1%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that quantitative index models, with a predicted vote share of 53.3%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 58.8% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote prognosis.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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