Today, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will collect 52.5% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.5% for Trump. Clinton has however experienced a downward trend over the past 79 days, in which she lost 0.26 percentage points.
This is what the components predict
The component methods widely agree on who will be the next U.S. President: Five anticipate a win for Clinton and one anticipates that Trump will win. Contrary to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 52.1%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 52.0% vote share, expert surveys are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 56.7% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote prognosis.