The combined PollyVote currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 52.6% for Clinton and 47.4% for Trump. Clinton has experienced an upward trend for the last 74 days, in which she gained an additional 0.04 percentage points.
What Polly's component methods predict
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is currently ahead by 52.1%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 52.0% vote share, expert surveys are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 56.8% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote prognosis.