Methods widely agree on the election outcome
Today, Polly predicts that Clinton will obtain 53% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47% for Trump. The component methods widely agree on who will be the next POTUS: Five forecast a win for Clinton and one forecast that Trump will win. Contrary to Polly's combined forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 52.1%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.3% vote share, quantitative index models are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's prognosis and predict Clinton to have 57.7% of the vote.