PollyVote currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump. Clinton has however experienced a downward trend over the past 26 days, in which she lost 0.19 percentage points.
What the components expect
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is currently ahead by 51.9%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.2% vote share, expert surveys are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 59.2% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote prognosis.