Combined PollyVote expects win for Clinton

In today's update, the combined PollyVote concludes that Clinton will end up with 52.6% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.4% for Trump. For the last 76 days, Polly's forecast been looking worse for Clinton, she has since lost 0.01 percentage points.

A look at the components

The component methods widely agree on who will win the election: Five expect a win for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win. Contrary to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 52.1%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 52.0%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 56.6% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote prognosis.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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