In today's update, the combined PollyVote concludes that Clinton will end up with 52.6% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.4% for Trump. For the last 76 days, Polly's forecast been looking worse for Clinton, she has since lost 0.01 percentage points.
A look at the components
The component methods widely agree on who will win the election: Five expect a win for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win. Contrary to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 52.1%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 52.0%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 56.6% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote prognosis.