Today, PollyVote concludes that Clinton will garner 52.8% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.2% for Trump. Clinton has experienced an upward trend for the last 74 days, in which she gained an additional 0.27 percentage points.
This is what Polly's components predict
Polly's component methods widely agree on who will win the election: Five expect a win for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is currently in the lead by 52.1%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.3% vote share, quantitative index models are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's prognosis and predict Clinton to have 57.1% of the vote.