PollyVote currently predicts a national two-party vote share of 52.6% for Clinton and 47.4% for Trump. Clinton has experienced an upward trend for the last 77 days, in which she gained an additional 0.05 percentage points.
What Polly's component methods say
Polly's component methods widely agree on who will be America's next president: Five forecast a victory for Clinton and one forecast that Trump will win. In contrast to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 52.1%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 52.0%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's prognosis and predict Clinton to have 56.7% of the vote.