Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome
PollyVote currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump. The component methods widely agree on who will be America's next president: Five predict a win for Clinton and one predicts that Trump will win. Contrary to Polly's combined forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 51.8%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 53.2%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 59.3% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote prognosis.