Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome

PollyVote currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump. The component methods widely agree on who will be America's next president: Five predict a win for Clinton and one predicts that Trump will win. Contrary to Polly's combined forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 51.8%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 53.2%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 59.3% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote prognosis.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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