As of today, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will achieve 52.5% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.5% for Trump. Clinton has however experienced a downward trend over the past 21 days, in which she lost 0.64 percentage points.
Looking at the components
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. Contrary to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 51.9%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.2% vote share, expert surveys are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 57.7% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote prognosis.