Clinton leads, according to latest PollyVote forecast

As of today, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will achieve 52.5% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.5% for Trump. Clinton has however experienced a downward trend over the past 21 days, in which she lost 0.64 percentage points.

Looking at the components

There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. Contrary to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric model of 51.9%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.2% vote share, expert surveys are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 57.7% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote prognosis.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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