Today, Polly concludes that Clinton will gain 53.1% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.9% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is right now in the lead by 51.9%. A look at the component methods predicting a win for Clinton shows that expert surveys, with a predicted vote share of 53.2%, are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 58.7% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote prognosis.