In the latest forecast, Polly the parrot concludes that Clinton will collect 53.6% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.5% for Trump. Polly's component methods widely agree on who will win the election: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one predicts that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is currently leading with 51.6%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.3% vote share, quantitative index models are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 61.0% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote prognosis.