Combined PollyVote forecasts win for Clinton

Polly currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53.6% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump. Clinton has however experienced a downward trend over the past 57 days, in which she lost 0.04 percentage points.

What Polly's component methods expect

There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is right now ahead by 51.6%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.3% vote share, quantitative index models are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 60.6% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote prognosis.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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