Combined PollyVote forecasts win for Clinton
Polly currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53.6% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump. Clinton has however experienced a downward trend over the past 57 days, in which she lost 0.04 percentage points.
What Polly's component methods expect
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is right now ahead by 51.6%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.3% vote share, quantitative index models are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. With a vote share of 60.6% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote prognosis.