Polly today predicts a national two-party vote share of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump. For the last 21 days, Polly's forecast been looking worse for Clinton, she has since lost 0.76 percentage points.
This is what Polly's component methods say
The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on who is ahead: Five expect a victory for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win. According to the econometric model Trump is right now ahead by 51.9%. Of the methods that predict Clinton as the election winner, with a 53.2% vote share, expert surveys are the closest to PollyVote's prognosis. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's prognosis and predict Clinton to have 57.2% of the vote.