Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in new Rasmussen poll
By On May 26, Rasmussen released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they would vote if the nominees were Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party and Donald Trump for the Republican Party.
The results show that 40.0% of respondents are going to to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between May 23 and May 24. The sample size was 1000 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine whether the results from a single poll are in line with benchmark forecasts.
To be able to compare the poll results to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 51.4% of the two-party vote in the latest polling average. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Rasmussen poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote. This means that the combined PollyVote is 1.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.
