New citizen forecast predicts tight race: Clinton 50.5% vs Trump 49.5%

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll provided updated citizen forecasts. In the polls, people were asked: “Regardless of whom you support, if Clinton and Trump are the nominees for president, who would you expect to win: Clinton or Trump?” According to the results, 50% of respondents expected Clinton to win, whereas 40% predicted a Trump victory. Translating these results into two-party vote-shares yield a forecast of 50.5% for Clinton and 49.5% for the Trump.

In comparison, the combined PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.0% of the popular two-party vote.

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