Quinnipiac poll in Ohio: Democrats are behind
Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll on May 10. In this poll, respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they would likely vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate. Ohio is a Swing State, in which the election result can still go either way, making the prognoses for this state especially interesting.
Of those who answered the question, 39.0% revealed that they are going to vote for the Democrats, whereas 43.0% declared that they would give their vote to the Republicans. The poll was conducted from April 27 to May 8 with 1042 registered voters. The results have a +/-3.0 percentage point sampling error.
Other survey predictions
Converting these results into two-party vote shares yields figures of 47.6% for the Democrat Hillary Clinton and 52.4% for Donald Trump. The Republicans did worse by 4.1 percentage points in comparison to the average results of the other polls in Ohio – a significant difference when regarding the sampling error.
In comparison with PollyVote's prediction
In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts the Republicans to gain 49.6% of the two-party vote in Ohio, which is 2.8 percentage points lower than their poll results. A look at the PollyVote national prediction for the Republicans indicates that the actual results are 5.7 percentage points higher.