Results of a new poll carried out by AIF (R) were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Florida for whom they would likely vote if the Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton and the Republicans nominated Donald Trump. Florida is a Swing State, in which the election result can still go either way, making the predictions for this state especially interesting.
The results show that 49.0% of participants intend to vote for the Democrats, while 36.0% said they would vote for the Republicans. The poll was conducted from April 25 to April 27 among 604 likely voters. The error margin is +/-5.0 percentage points.
Other survey predictions
Translating these results into two-party vote shares yields figures of 57.7% for the Democrats and 42.4% for the Republicans. In comparison to the average results of other polls in Florida the Democrats did better in this poll . A glance at the sampling error shows that the difference is significant.
According to PollyVote’s prediction
The poll results for the Democrats are thus 7.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which currently expects a value of 50.5% in Florida. On a national level the results amount to 4.4 percentage points higher in comparison to the PollyVote prognosis for the Democrats vote share.