Jay DeSart updated his long-range model with April polling data. The most recent forecast slightly favors Trump in a likely match-up against Clinton. In particular, the DeSart model predicts Trump to gain 50.9% of the vote, compared to 49.1% for Clinton. Trump is also predicted to win the electoral college with 295 votes, compared to 243 for Clinton.
The vote-share forecast currently enters the combined PollyVote with a weight of 3%. In comparison, today’s PollyVote forecast predicts the Democrats to gain 53.3% of the vote.