Trump slightly favored in updated DeSart model

On May 3, 2016

At 11:21 am

653 Views

Jay DeSart updated his long-range model with April polling data. The most recent forecast slightly favors Trump in a likely match-up against Clinton. In particular, the DeSart model predicts Trump to gain 50.9% of the vote, compared to 49.1% for Clinton. Trump is also predicted to win the electoral college with 295 votes, compared to 243 for Clinton.

The vote-share forecast currently enters the combined PollyVote with a weight of 3%. In comparison, today’s PollyVote forecast predicts the Democrats to gain 53.3% of the vote.

Andreas has joined the PollyVote in 2007. He is a Professor of Management at Macromedia University in Munich. Andreas has published extensively on election forecasting. For more information see www.andreas-graefe.org.

By Andreas Graefe

You May Also Like

French presidential election: Experts diverge from polls with respect to Valérie Pécresse’s chances against President Macron

Forecasting panels at the APSA Annual Meeting

Final expert survey: Experts predict a dead heat between SPD and CSU/CSU in run for strongest party