On May 3, AIF (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they would vote if the parties' nominees were Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Donald Trump for the Republicans. As a Swing State Florida could be a valuable win for both the democratic and the republican party. Election predictions for this state are quite significant, as the final outcome could still go either way.
The results reveal that 49.0% of respondents plan to vote for the Democratic party, whereas 36.0% said they would vote for GOP. This poll was conducted from April 25 to April 27, among a random sample of 604 likely voters. The error margin is +/-5.0 percentage points.
According to other surveys
Translating these results into two-party vote shares yields values of 57.7% for the Democrat Clinton and 42.4% for the Republican Trump. The Democrats did worse by 4.9 percentage points in comparison to the average results of the other polls in Florida.
In comparison with PollyVote's prognosis
In Comparison, the PollyVote currently foresees the Democrats to gain 50.7% of the two-party vote in Florida, which is 7.0 percentage points lower than their poll results. On a national level the results are 9.5 percentage points higher compared to the PollyVote prognosis for the Democrats vote share.