The Pollyvote team has completed its fifth survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In the late April survey, conducted between April 27 and 30, 15 academics from a variety of colleges and universities responded.
The mean forecast is that the Democrats will garner 53.2% of the major-party vote (compared to 46.8% for the Republicans), with individual forecasts ranging from a minimum of 49.5% to a maximum of 55.2%. Only one expert expected the Republicans to win a majority of the vote.
The predicted Democratic vote share is thus slightly (0.1 percentage points) higher than in the previous survey, conducted in late March, when the mean expert experts had predicted a vote share of 53.1% for the Democrats and 46.9% for the Republicans.
Polly thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely
- Randall Adkins (University of Nebraska Omaha)
- Lonna Rae Atkeson (University of New Mexico)
- Scott Blinder (University of Massachusetts Amherst)
- John Coleman (University of Minnesota)
- George Edwards (Texas A&M University)
- John Geer (Vanderbilt University)
- Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
- Michael Martinez (University of Florida)
- Thomas Patterson (Harvard University)
- Gerald Pomper (Rutgers University)
- David Redlawsk (Rutgers University)
- Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
- Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
- Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)
and one expert who preferred to remain anonymous.