NBC-WSJ-Marist published the results of a new poll on April 27. In this poll, respondents from Iowa were asked for whom they would likely vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
The results reveal that 48.0% of interviewees intend to vote for the Democrats, while 40.0% said they would vote for Republican party. This poll was conducted from January 2 to January 7, among a random sample of 1470 registered voters. The sampling error is +/-2.6 points.
According to other surveys
Converting these results into two-party vote shares yields figures of 54.6% for the democrat Clinton and 45.5% for the republican Trump. The vote share for the Democrats is 1.7 percentage points under the average results of other polls in Iowa.
Surveys in comparison with PollyVote's prognosis
The poll numbers for the Democrats are therefore 2.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which currently foresees a value of 52.1% in Iowa.