NBC-WSJ-Marist published the results of a new poll on April 27. In this poll, respondents from Florida were asked for whom they would likely vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
According to the results, 49.0% of interviewees plan to vote for the Democratic Party, while 41.0% plan to vote for the Republicans. This poll was conducted from March 4 to March 10, among a random sample of 2422 registered voters. The error margin is +/-2.0 percentage points.
According to other surveys
Converting these results into two-party vote shares yields figures of 54.4% for the democrat Hillary Clinton and 45.6% for the republican Donald Trump. The vote share for the Democrats is 3.2 percentage points under the average results of other polls in Florida.
Surveys in comparison with PollyVote's prognosis
The poll numbers for the Democrats are thus 4.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which currently forecasts a value of 0.0% in Florida.