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Issue models turn in Democrats’ favor


After months of no issue polls, an ABC News/Washington Post survey finally provides information about how people rate the candidates’ ability to handle the issues. In particular, the survey asked participants whom of either Clinton or Trump they would expect to do a better job in handling four issues: terrorism (which is currently seen as the most important issue), the economy, immigration, and a potential international crisis.

Participants strongly favored Clinton on all four issues (see Figure). In comparison, prior surveys that asked people to compare Clinton to a generic Republican candidate tended to favor the Republicans. In addition to the bio-index model, this provides further support for the notion that Trump would likely be a poor choice as a nominee for the Republican Party.

The results from the issue questions are used in two models, namely the issue-index and the big-issue models. While, prior to the release of the survey, both models predicted the Republicans to win the popular vote, their forecasts have turned. The issue-index model predicts the Democrats to gain 52.0% of the vote. The big-issue also favors the Democrats, despite predicting a closer race, at 50.6%.


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