The Daily Pennsylvanian talked to Scott Armstrong about the Pollyvote. Here are some of Scott’s key points.
On the motivation to launch the PollyVote in 2004
“What we were trying to do is to demonstrate to the world that if you use what we call ‘evidence based principles forecasting,’ you can improve just about any forecast in the world,” Armstrong said. He chose the presidential election for the purpose of gaining attention from the press and the general public.
On the benefits of combining forecasts:
“Most people think if you look at a forecast, you should try to pick the best one, but that’s false,” Armstrong noted. “In fact, if you use a combined forecast, you can very often, very often, do better than the best component in that combination.”
On the bio-index model‘s poor scoring for Donald Trump:
“We’ve never had anybody so low, it’s astonishing,” Armstrong said. “That should be an indication to the party that they are going to have a real problem if they select Trump.”