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Republicans heavily favored in updated DeSart model


Jay DeSart updated his long-range model with February polling data. The most recent forecast favors the Republican candidates in hypothetical match-ups against both Clinton and Sanders.

For the likely outcome of a Clinton-Trump race, the DeSart model predicts Trump to gain 51.6% of the vote, compared to 48.4% for Clinton. This forecast currently enters the combined PollyVote with a weight of 4%. Trump is also predicted to win the electoral college with 311 votes, compared to 227 for Clinton.

The forecast is in contrast to the most recent PollyVote forecast, which predicts the Democrats to gain 52.2% of the vote.

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