Jérôme & Jérôme model update: Republicans predicted to gain 50.8%

Bruno and Véronique Jérôme updated their state-by-state political economy model. The model now predicts the Democrats to gain 49.2% of the two-party vote, compared to 50.8% for the Republicans. The model forecast currently enters the combined PollyVote with a weight of four percent.

Interestingly, although the model predicts the Democrats to lose the popular vote, they are still expected to win the electoral vote. The latest forecast predicts the Democrats to gain 325 electoral votes, compared to 213 for the Republicans.