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Revised forecast of Primary model


Helmut Norpoth provided an update of his Primary model forecast. The initial forecast posted on February 27 relied on a polling data, not actual results, for the Democratic primary in South Carolina. Now that the results are in, which give Hillary Clinton a much bigger lead than was indicated by the polls, the forecasts for the various general election match-ups are as follows:

Revised general election forecasts of the Primary model
Race Democratic vote Republican vote Probability of winning
Clinton-Trump 47.5 52.5 87%
Clinton-Rubio 52.4 47.6 86%
Sanders-Trump 42.3 57.7 99%
Sanders-Rubio 47.2 52.8 89%

At the moment, there are forecasts from five component methods, and five econometric models, available. Therefore, the primary model enters the combined PollyVote forecast with a current weight of 4%. Not surprisingly then, the PollyVote forecast is largely unaffected by this change and still predicts the Democrats to gain around 52.0% of the two-party vote.

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