Helmut Norpoth provided an update of his Primary model forecast. The initial forecast posted on February 27 relied on a polling data, not actual results, for the Democratic primary in South Carolina. Now that the results are in, which give Hillary Clinton a much bigger lead than was indicated by the polls, the forecasts for the various general election match-ups are as follows:
|Revised general election forecasts of the Primary model|
|Race||Democratic vote||Republican vote||Probability of winning|
At the moment, there are forecasts from five component methods, and five econometric models, available. Therefore, the primary model enters the combined PollyVote forecast with a current weight of 4%. Not surprisingly then, the PollyVote forecast is largely unaffected by this change and still predicts the Democrats to gain around 52.0% of the two-party vote.