Primary model predicts Trump victory

Polly added the Primary model by Helmut Norpoth to its econometric models component. The model is based on state electoral histories and candidates’ performance in early primaries.

Assuming a Clinton-Trump race, the model predicts a clear victory for the Republicans, with Donald Trump gaining 54.7% of the two-party vote (compared to 45.3% for Clinton). This is the largest lead for the Republicans in any forecast available to date. In other words, the forecast is an outlier. In comparison, today’s combined PollyVote forecast predicts the Democrats to gain 51.9% of the vote, compared to 48.1% for the Republicans.