Polly added the long-range model by Jay DeSart to its econometric models component. The model is based on state electoral histories, national polling data as well as two variables that attempt to estimate next year’s election context.
Assuming a Clinton-Trump race, the model’s latest forecast predicts a close outcome, with a slight advantage for the Republicans. That is, the model predicts the Democrats to gain 49.3% of the national two-party vote, compared to 50.7% for the Republicans. In comparison, the latest PollyVote forecast forecasts a vote share of 52.0% for the Democrats and 48.0% for the Republicans.
Note: There was a minor mistake in calculating the combined econometric model forecast as a result of adding the DeSart model on February 12th. The effect on the combined PollyVote forecast was negligible, however. The error was corrected on February 15th.